More than four in ten French people have voted at least once for the National Rally, an Ifop-Fiducial study of “JDD” and Sud Radio reveals that point to the party’s demonization, but also the absence of a possible embodiment of a presidential victory.
Sebastien Chenou, living room frontman
According to this broad survey, 42% of French people say they have voted for the RN at least once in their lives. It was 35% in 2021 and 30% in 2017, a sign of the far-right party’s continued entrenchment. In the 2022 presidential election, the candidate of the Republican Party, Marine Le Pen, definitely got almost 41.5% of the vote against Emmanuel Macron. But due to the high abstention rate, this result actually only represents 27.26% of registered voters, or just over one in four French people.
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A quarter of the electorate of Melenchon
Among those who actually fell behind in the RN bulletin, the working (57%) and poor (51%) categories are over-represented. Even more surprising, 28% of left-wing supporters, or 27% of people who chose Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2022, said they had already voted for RN.
The study confirms that the desire to express dissatisfaction remains the main driver of the National Front vote (24%), more than the commitment to the party’s observation on the state of the country (15%). The RN vote is more disapproving of other parties (61% of voters) than supporting the party (39%). Stable trend since 2017, following a strong increase in membership compared to 1997 (13%).
Marine Le Pen, The Silent Conquest
Of these voters, 92% consider justice too lenient (85% of all French surveyed), 86% believe that France is a country of Christian culture (against 82%) or even 92% assert that the country is a country of Christian culture. in decline (against 77%). Also, 86% think democracy is the only acceptable form of government (against 89% overall) and 74% think it is normal for same-sex couples to marry (against 78%). 69% support reintroducing the death penalty, a number that drops to 50% among all respondents
A sign of a tendency to demonetize the party’s image, 59% of those questioned describe the RN as a racist party, a figure that has fallen sharply since 2017 (68%). 55% think it is dangerous for democracy compared to 62% 6 years ago.
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Conversely, 50% say he has a vision for the future of France, compared to 40% in 2017. And 47% believe he can rule France, compared to 39% 6 years ago.
In the political sphere, La France Insomise worries more than RN (28 vs. 21% of those surveyed) and considers RN closer to people’s interests (30% vs. 18%) than Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s formation.
The weak presidential position of Marine Le Pen
The poll also highlights the limitations of Marine Le Pen, the three-time failed presidential candidate: only 23% give him presidential status.
In all, 41% of those surveyed want Le Pen to win in 2027, but only 37% expect her to succeed. His election will be seen as a leap into the unknown for 73% of the respondents. 72% expect suburban riots and 69% expect mass demonstrations.
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Relations with Russia: The National Rally Gang
Of the possible alternatives to Marine Le Pen, the current party president Jordan Bardella seems to be the best, but he remains in the minority in opinion: 30% of those surveyed would be ready to vote for him in the next presidential elections, ahead of the next presidential elections with a wide margin. Rep. Sebastien Chino (12%).
An online survey was conducted from 12 to 15 June of 1,314 people who had already voted for RN, drawn from a sample of 3,008 people representing the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method, with a margin of error between 1.4 and 3.1 points.
