“If we arm ourselves, it is to avoid war”

Global military budgets are rising, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and potential conflict between the US and China. Has the world’s disarmament arc finally closed?

Bruno Tertris. The war in Ukraine is only the last step on the peace. The first turning point in this global rearmament came after 9/11: the US defense budget nearly doubled in the early 2000s. The second was around 2012, with the re-election of Vladimir Putin and the rise of Xi Jinping – this year there, outspending Military of Asia Military spending of Europe. Then, in the mid-2000s, two defeats followed each other for Western countries: Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and the peak of the Islamic State threat. Since February 2022, we are thus witnessing a fourth turning point. It mainly concerns Europe, with