Home Politics A study says that the National Gathering is the “big winner” in the series of retreats

A study says that the National Gathering is the “big winner” in the series of retreats

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national assembly “clearly on the rise” Following the episode on pension reform though “low engagement” sequentially, according to a study by the Jean Jaures Foundation published on Tuesday, April 4.

“The rise of the National Assembly (…) is amazing during this sequence of declines, with voting intentions increasing by 7 points, if new legislative elections are held”details of the think tank.

sequel after announcement

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The Jean Jaurès Foundation bases part of its analysis on an Ifop survey of “JDD” conducted online on March 20 and 21 with a representative sample of 1,094 people according to the quota method, with a margin of error of 1.4 to 3.1 points.

“Serious and anti-system”

26% of voters would choose the far-right party if legislative news were published, while it had achieved 19% in the June 2022 elections. In the same expected scenario, the left-wing Nupes coalition settled at 26% (its result in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections), While Ennahda’s majority drops to 22% (-4 points).

“RNs benefit from serial retirements because they are seen as dangerous and anti-systemic in public opinion, and they have shown an attitude of compromise when LFIs are seen as too extreme.”confirms to AFP Antoine Prestel, researcher in social sciences and author of the study.

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The party headed by Jordan Bardella continues to lead among employees (+10 points) and among workers (+5 points), but its score also increases among classes “less educated” Such as artisans, merchants and business leaders (+15 points) and intermediate professions (+12 points).

sequel after announcement

“While the RN has undoubtedly become a party of the popular and working classes, it is greatly increasing its score in other key sectors of the electorate, so much so that it looks more and more like a government party”The study says.

new “Electoral dynamics are involved” In the aftermath of the crisis associated with the reform of the pension system, notes Antoine Priestel. The latter is compared with a crunch “yellow vests” from the end of 2018 which had previously predicted the rise of RN during Spring Europe 2019.

For its part, the presidential party sees its electoral bloc collapsing (craftsmen, intermediate professions), retaining only two main bases: executives and retirees (33% of the majority voting intentions for each).

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