A month ago, voters who voted for Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the 2022 presidential election advocated reform to the pension system, which they considered “inevitable”. What about today ?
Frederick Daby. Emmanuel Macron continues to have a strong base. Last week, 76% of its 2022 first-round voters, whom we surveyed as part of JDD’s IFop survey, said they “Satisfied” of his work. By comparison, this satisfaction rate is much higher than the one enjoyed by François Hollande at the time of the challenge to El Khmry’s law: of his voters in 2012, Hollande has since fallen to less than 50%. What is remarkable, however, is that, for the first time since 2017, this top base – which has always been between 80 and 85% – is experiencing serious erosion.
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How exactly is this erosion explained?
It is very clear, and not surprisingly, that there is a “retirement effect”. The Elector Macron, in this sense, is as French as the others who regret – admittedly in a less ferocious way – the unfair reform. The Macron voter also points to the social unacceptability of raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 in a post-Covid context. This wear should be seen as a “49.3 impact”. I would say, on the subject, that the 49.3 effect is stronger in the macro-minded electorate than in others. The feeling of forced passage and brutality are clearly criticized.
Overall, we also note the disappointment with the role this second five-year period has taken. During his first term, Emmanuel Macron was like Midas: for his voters, everything he touched turned to gold. Today, what he touches is likely to turn into a drive. The idea that he would be the best at his job, that no one could do better than him, withers.
How is this booth, which we have already seen at the time of the “yellow vests”, really the first?
sequel after announcement
Emmanuel Macron had already fallen, at the time of the “yellow vests” crisis, with around 80% satisfaction with the first round of his 2017 electorate. At the height of the demonstrations, his popularity had fallen to 23%. However, immediately after the looting of the Arc de Triomphe, prompted by the demand for order and security, it rebounded in opinion polls, reaching 36% in September 2019, as soon as the Europeans passed.
Unlike his predecessors, the head of state has a unique relationship with popularity: three times he has succeeded in flattening the curve and restoring public opinion: after work orders in the fall of 2017, after the “yellow vests” in 2019 and after covid . After that, for two and a half years, while the country experienced a series of crises (health, war in Ukraine), he managed to maintain his popularity between 38% and 42%. Today, only 28% of French people say they are satisfied with his actions (-4 points in one month). His policy is rejected. He becomes a traditional boss again and pays for an unpopular reform.
The Republic is inundated: How can Macron rule now?