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Will the war of the three break out?

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He is a believer of the first hour who speaks. One of those whiners of grandeur who appeared on La Rotonde’s guest list in 2017, and who, five years later, on re-election evening, stood in the Elysee Salons, holy of holies, in the company of oils. from the majority. Remembering the victorious evening of April 24, 2022, this close friend of the President recalls feeling something ” curious “ : “At 8:00 pm, Emmanuel was re-elected. At 8:01 pm, noticing everyone around me, I understood that the process had already begun. All of them had already turned their minds towards the year 2027. And this was physically reflected in their position!”.

succession in politics

In general, this is the least prepared moment in politics. The place where the old refuse to concede when the new ones fight to position themselves. Loebs analyzed four stories from the current succession:

  • Philippe, Darmanin, Le Mer: Will the War of the Three Break Out (1/4)
  • Clementine Otan and François Ruffin, ready to “do better” than Melenchon? (2/4)
  • In Les Républicains, the impossible legacy of Nicolas Sarkozy (3/4)
  • In RN, how Marine Le Pen made Bardella’s heir (4/4)

Barely re-elected, Emmanuel Macron quickly realized that this five-year term would have little to do with the previous term. Weakened by the absence of an absolute majority in the Assembly, the Head of State has been witnessing this silent battle between the suitors since spring. Before his eyes, ambitions assert themselves and whet the appetite. It is true that the tenant of the Elysée is in an unprecedented situation: as a result of the 2008 constitutional review, he became the first president of the Fifth Republic to begin his second term with the certainty of not being able to represent himself. . From now on, at lunches and dinners in the city, every Macron speculates, without any taboos, about who will be able to take over the torch in five years.

With this in mind, three characters crystallize all the attention and seem to be one step ahead of the moment: Gerald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire and Edouard Philippe. These three trained in the Union of the Popular Movement before marching together in Macron and occupying the highest positions of the Republic, and these three know by heart and prepare for the possibility of having to confront one day or another. But in the meantime, everyone’s measuring themselves up, looking at each other, stepping up their pawns and refining their strategy for 2027: recruiting troops, looking for funding, fielding, “treatment” deputies…

Admittedly, and the three parties involved agreed, it would be crazy to imagine that the script for this future presidential election could be written now. But it is clear that at the moment Macroni, especially the left winger, notes with a touch of helplessness the beginnings of this trio that looks, erroneously, as a real right-wing first.

Edward Philip, favourite

Since he dominates head and shoulders in all polls of popularity, and because his passage through Matignon gave him the status of statesman, Edouard Philippe appears today, to some, as the best. “Of the right trinity, I believe more in Edouard’s hypothesis, precisely because of this classification he received with the French.”This minister is reassuring. The former prime minister is also the one who declared the color openly by creating his political team Horizons from 2021. According to friends of the former prime minister, the Filipino movement, which claims about twenty thousand members, should run for Le Havre in 2027. He is now on permanent campaign. one of his friends whispers.

sequel after announcement

more free it’s not like that ” sincerely “Edouard Philippe, who has always claimed to be a man of the right, does not intend to fully subscribe to the legacy of Emmanuel Macron. Macroism remained in his eyes an arc of history, the Normandy keen to build himself ideologically “next to” the presidential camp and to keep a healthy distance from the debates that anger the majority. At risk of sometimes appearing out of the way of the concerns of the majority, or even disappearing from radar screens.

The first National Reconstitution Committee headed by Emmanuel Macron? He blows it off, claiming a long-planned trip to Quebec. Creation of the Renaissance? He was present, but did not speak. At the many dinners at the Elysee to which he was invariably invited, he always behaved in much the same way. His positions are rare and his views are not clear. Even in his earlier fad, the lower legal retirement age, he is content to say today that he will support the chosen solution, whatever it may be.

Edward Philip wants “laying bricks”. He already has about thirty deputies in the Assembly, and now he has elections for the Senate ahead of him. Preferring objective ideas over chin strikes, he also intends to spread himself in the intellectual field through his magazines “Afaaq”. The following insurance will be devoted to unemployment insurance.

Pitfalls promise to be many for Edouard Philippe. Hard core felines still have a fierce hatred for him. “He’s going to be a candidate and we’ve integrated him,” This confirms a close friend of the head of state. He will be the candidate of the European and liberal right who will carry an inappropriate political project. But what is the weight of his positions? 10 to 12%, that’s it. Edouard Philippe is Giscard without fate, nothing more. Will this be an additional source of motivation for the person concerned? It is said in the corridors of power that Emmanuel Macron himself would not want his former prime minister to succeed him.

sequel after announcement

Gerald Darmanin, “Inside” Strategist

On the other hand, the head of state has more leniency for another ambitious man who has won his confidence: Gerald Darmanin. Interior Minister ” Friend “ d’Édouard, since moving to Beauvau, has made a place for himself at the heart of the presidential system. In the field of security and immigration, the former campaign manager of Nicolas Sarkozy applies to the message the principle of his former mentor: saturating the media space, by showing his popular threads outwardly. The mayor of Tourcoing, the son of a cleaning lady, willingly brings up his humble origins. “I am the far left in the government after Olivier Dussopet”, dared again at the end of October before the executives of Renaissance, having just assumed responsibilities that do not deceive his intentions. In the new presidential party organizational structure, Darmanin is now in charge of training. He toured the districts to meet elected officials and activists. domain, nothing like it to create a network. and stable. “Temples into the house of 2027”.

To make his way to the presidential elections, the Minister of the Interior also walks on two feet that are already well defined, thus security, but also work. One day, he makes a cross-reference between immigration and delinquency or announces a better implementation of the OQTF (Obligations to Leave French Territories); Another, he proposes to his party to open a wage conference or make promises to settle the conditions of unregistered workers in sectors that need a workforce.

Before tackling Elysian Everest, Gerald Darmanin wrote a date in his diary: 2024. That year, the year for Europeans will be politically decisive. Emmanuel Macron will be in the middle of the term and at this time Ennahda will freeze the method of appointing the majority candidate in the future. Until then, if he wants to be able to run for the highest office, the Minister of the Interior believes that he will have to rely on the record and thus provide results in the field of security and in the field of immigration. His long-awaited text on immigration will be debated in parliament between March and April. Finally, he also knows that he will have to successfully overcome the hurdle of organizing the Olympic Games. Then, after 2024, Gerald will have three options. Summarizing MP.

“The first, which he does not master, is called Matignon. The second, which he does not control any more, is to leave Buffau to serve another, so why not Percy. The third is to take over the presidential party. It is a real choice.”.

The new popular Bruno Le Maire

Will Bruno Le Maire leave him on the field? The person who has already tried to run for the Elysée, before failing in the preliminary stage, has already also decided not to neglect Ennahda. Mr Percy since 2017 he has inherited, within the Greater Movement, a key role: he is responsible for the supervision of the Pole “ideas”. Proof that he, too, has set his sights on 2027?

sequel after announcement

The Minister of Economy now has the image that he formulated during the Covid crisis, which was not the image we expected. Adhering to strict budget orthodoxy, he then began advocating spending without costing, assuming the famously knotless “Whatever it takes – whatever it costs” presidential. Rebelote, since then, with an energy shield.

Among the assets he brings up around him: his new status as “star” to the government. According to an Odoxa Backbone Consulting poll published on December 22nd, Bruno Le Maire is now the most popular (89%) and most highly regarded (56%) minister of the Borne team. In court in business circles, the Minister of Economy, who was on the front line during the sequence ” Donate “also takes care – just as Gerald Darmanin does – of his parliamentary networks, coddling a whole series of MPs who willingly claim to be part of “lemairism”. His entourage also willingly supports the idea that he can, before seriously considering 2027, turn to Washington. The succession of Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva is already scheduled to head the International Monetary Fund in 2024. Bruno has no thirty-six possibilities: either he will go up and pass through Matignon, or he will go down. Drop a minister. ” It’s a bit stuck. And suddenly it is not impossible for him to seek to leave.”.

It remains to be seen if Bruno Le Maire will be able to adapt to the constraints of a presidential election, a careful and restrained exercise where it is necessary to show some populism and “field sense”. His staunch opposition to taxing big energy companies has left above all an image of a figure willing to do anything to protect big business.

From the Elysee, Emmanuel Macron thinks: how can they be contained, these three ambitious? In pursuit of the march, it was he who decided on the possibility of discussing his succession in 2024, as soon as the Europeans passed. “But until then, no one should weaken the building.”warns a member of his bodyguard.

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