Geopolitical forecasts are in the same order as good New Year’s resolutions: it is better not to check what we said twelve months ago … 2022 has confounded all forecasts, in almost all areas, and it would be in vain to formulate some of them for the coming year. On the other hand, it may be useful to draw some lessons from the unexpected events of 2022, to better prepare for 2023.
Lesson 1: Autocrats are not infallible. We end up believing it, with China managing to marry inclusivity and economic growth; Russia whose rogue behavior, in Syria or in Africa, seems to be working in his favour; Or even Donald Trump, whom we would gladly place in this category, who looked unbreakable despite a record number of pots.
2022 has not been a good year for them, especially for Vladimir Putti
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