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Thirty years war

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On the agenda for 2023, there is a declared social conflict. From January, a union front that brings together all brokers, including CFDT, plans to Unified mobilization by strikes and demonstrations » To oppose the reform of the pension system that Emmanuel Macron wanted. Anything but a surprise: Gradually delaying the statutory retirement age to 65 in 2031 is a recurring presidential promise. This perspective sparked, for nine months, an outcry from the left. Even the hesitation in the Macronian camp…

Pension reform: why Macron wants to impose it

The presentation of the government project has been postponed until January 10. But the course has been set: After the final consultation, the executive branch intends to impose it “measuring age” which 70% of French respondents said they oppose. It seems that nothing should stop the president. Not even the memory of 2010 with François Fillon in Matignon. At the time, the drop in the legal age from 60 to 62 had, in vain, thrown 3 million protesters into the streets.

sequel after announcement

As was the case twelve years ago, the government invokes a growing demographic imbalance between the active and the inactive and the prolongation of life expectancy at the root of urgent financing needs to justify its prescription. As happened twelve years ago, this possibility of future deficits is disputed by opponents of reform. Dispute over numbers? From the president’s perspective, declining legal age is just not the most effective way to get money into the coffers. It is also a matter of getting the French to work more to gain competitiveness. Spaniards or Belgians are waiting 65 years to retire, Germans and Italians 67.

François Humrell: “The only person responsible for the struggle over pensions is Emmanuel Macron”

Added to this are personal considerations: Macron claims to have left his mark on history. In 2020, the Covid crisis prompted him to suspend pension reform. After a slow start to his second five-year term, he’s finally hoping to get going. Even if today’s proposed “right-wing” parametric reform has nothing to do with the great social democratic explosion of points-based pensions promised in 2017…

Possible use of 49.3

It remains to be adopted “Mother of Reforms”. In the Assembly, the rejectionist front extends from the left (Nupes) to the extreme right Lepenist. Without an absolute majority, the executive can only count on the support of the House of Representatives to support a measure that they themselves have long advocated. The problem: division undermines the right. The newly elected new leader, Eric Ciotti, who “Always defend an increase in the subscription period or the retirement age” intends to dictate “Musleht”. Christmas negotiations will aim to bring him out of obscurity. On top of that, the legal age may be postponed to 64 years, with an extension of the subscription period. A proposal was voted down in November by the right in the Senate.

With or without LR, the government has already planned to cover the issue in the Social Security Financing Act Amendment. At stake is a brief debate and possible use of 49.3 to avoid a vote in session. But motions of blame are likely to rain down. And if he accidentally submits the right, it will be validated by Nupes and the RN. That would then be the end of the Bourne government…

Laurent Berger: “The project to retire at 65 is very unfair”

The fight will also take place in the street. If the government praises the establishment of a minimum pension of 1,200 euros and the arrangements made for long and/or difficult careers, the unions intend to mobilize on an age scale code that strikes all workers without discrimination. Cancellation of special regulations for new entrants to the RATP and the electricity and gas industries could penalize strikes. What is hindering reform? As an aside, some trade unionists question it themselves. Did French employees who hang up on average at 63.1 years of age actually quit? The last defeat of the government in this war dates back to 1995. Another era.

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